Last Week in Review:The Jobs R eport for March was released on Friday, but was it Good news?

Forecast for the Week:Two important inflation reports are ahead. Plus earnings season begins.

View:Whether youre traveling for business or pleasure, you never want to overpay for your hotel. Check out the article below for an important money-saving tip.

Take this job and love it. And that's something that fewer than expected people are doing, according to last Friday's disappointing Jobs report. Here are the details...and what they mean for home loan rates.

Last week's Jobs Report for March showed that 120,0 00 jobs were created, with 121,000 private gains offsetting modest government jobs losses. This was an utter disappointment, as expectations were for something north of 200,000 job creations.

The unemployment rate declined to 8.2%. While any decline in unemployment is good news, the figure does need to be taken with a grain of salt - especially in light of the significant headline jobs creation miss. The reason why: the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), which removes some of the guesstimating and adjustments of the unemployment rate. That number (currently at a 30-year low) is a concern because if the LFPR continues to decline, it means we are seeing a smaller ratio of people working against the overall population. This will be another headwind to our already debt-laden government.

While the Jobs Report was disappointing news for our economic recovery, Bonds (which thrive on weak economic news) improved on the news, includ ing Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied. And of course, the ugly headline jobs creation reading also renewed the talk of another round of Bond buying (Quantitative Easing or QE3)even though the minutes from the March 13th Fed Meeting suggested there would be no QE3 unless the economy falters.

In addition, Bonds and home loan rates benefitted from the continuing debt rumblings in Europe. Not only has manufacturing there fallen for seven straight months, but Portuguese banks will unlikely meet recapitalization goals for 2012. Spain also has huge banking problems and will be in a recession this year and likely next year; plus Italy, Greece and Ireland are troubled as well. The debt in Europe is only becoming larger - and countries are contracting, while trying to cut spending. Bonds and home loan rates could continue to benefit if investors move their money into what is seen as the safe haven of our Bond Market.

Many factors will continue to impact the direction in which Bonds and home loan rates move in the coming weeks and months. The bottom line is that now continues to be a great time to purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates still remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

The markets will be open the entire week, despite the Easter and Passover holidaysand two reports stand out:

• The economic calendar is light this week, but investors will be closely wa tching the Producer Price Index onThursday and the Consumer Price Index on Friday. Higher oil prices have fanned the flames for higher inflation in the short term says Fed Chairman Ben Bernankebut in the longer term, it remains subdued.
• Initial Weekly Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday. Jobless claims fell to their lowest level in four years last week to 357,000.
• On Friday the first reading of April Consumer Sentiment will be released.

In addition to those reports, corporate earnings will be in the news this week. Earnings reports are closely watched by investors around the globe. If the tone is positive, there could be a shift back into the Stock markets from the Bond markets, which in turn could push home loan rates higher. On the flipside, if earnings come in below expectations, Stocks could fall while Bonds could rise, in turn pushing home loan rates lower.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving - and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further - a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates benefitted from the disappointing Jobs Report. I'll be watching the news closely to see which way they move next.

An Easy Way to Get a Refund if Your Hotel Price Drops

When you reserve a room through Tingo, you get money back if the price drops. 
By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com

What if you found out that the hotel room you booked was $50 cheaper when you checked in? How about $100 less -- or maybe even $500?

Hotels lower their rates more often than you might suspect, and a new Web site is helping travelers cash in on those price drops. Launched in March by Smarter Travel Media (a TripAdvisor company), Tingo automatically rebooks your room at the lower rate if the hotel drops its price. Then you'll get a refund for the difference.

Americans c ould have saved nearly $314 million in 2011 if they had taken advantage of these price drops, according to data collected by Tingo. The average price drop is $35, but it can be much more. For example, the price on a two-night stay at the Wynn Las Vegas booked January 27 had dropped $519 by February 23.

To take advantage of Tingo's price-drop refunds, you have to book at a hotel designated as "Money Back." But that doesn't mean you're limited to just a few hotels. Tingo's worldwide hotel inventory is powered by Expedia, and more than 95% of the hotels offer the opportunity for refunds.

After you book a room, Tingo will track your rate and send you an e-mail if the hotel lowers the price for any component of your stay. You'll get a new confirmation number, and your refund will appear on your credit card after you check out. Tingo does not charge any fees for rebooking your room.

Reprinted with perm ission. All Contents 2012 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. Kiplinger.com.

Economic Calendar for the Week of April 09 - April 13

I hope you enjoyed a wonderful Thanksgiving weekend with friends and family. I know that I certainly have much to be thankful for, including many wonderful clients and friends like you.

In addition, I sincerely hope you've been enjoying your complimentary subscription to the Mortgage Market Guide Weekly. Your next full issue will arrive "hot off the press" next week. In the meantime, please enjoy the holiday article below.

The Mortgage Market Guide Weekly is the industry's leading publication of this type, and I'm pleased to provide this valuable resource to you. If you feel that any of your clients, friends, family members or associates would benefit from keeping up-to-date on market and economic trends with this easy-to-read format, please let me know, and I will be happy to add them free of charge.

Best wishes to you.

Here's How to Start the Holiday Season

This time of year is all about reflection. Taking the time to consider the blessings in our lives - from family and friends to education and opportunity. But it's also a time to renew our spirits and souls, especially as we head into the holiday season and a new year. To help you make the upcoming holiday season feel a little less hectic and more reflective, consider dedicating specific times of the day or week to family activities that focus on the blessings of the season.

The website Kaboose.com can help. It offers a wide variety of word searches, crossword puzzles, mazes, coloring pages and more that you can download and print for free. Better still, those activities are available in different levels of toughness and subjects, so you can find the right activity for your family. Use the links below to start finding holiday activities that help you celebrate the meanings behind the holidays:

• Chanukah - Download and Print Activities
• Christmas - Download and Print Activities
• Kwanzaa - Download and Print Activities
• New Year's - Download and Print Coloring Pages

Here's to wishing you and yours the very best as we head into the beautiful holiday season. If you have any questions or if there's anything I can do for you or someone you know, please just call or email. I'm always happy to help in any way I can.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 28 - December 02

Last Week in Review: There was more negative news out of Europe and some positive economic news here in the US. But how did home loan rates fare?

Forecast for the Week: There will be plenty of news to gobble up before the Thanksgiving holiday, with reports on the housing market, the state of the economy, inflation, consumer sentiment, and more.

View: Planning to do some shopping on Black Friday? Be sure to check out these tips first.

They say it takes two to tango.... And Stocks and Bonds continue to battle for investing dollars and trade in seesaw fashion. What's causing this dance in the markets? Read on for details.

First, there was more pessimistic news out of Europe last week, as German leader Angela Merkel said that Europe is going through its toughest times since World War II, plagued by political unrest and a severe debt crisis. Reports showed there was a slowing in manufacturing to the point where recession fears have now gripped Europe.

Here lies another enormous problem for Europe: One way--and probably the biggest way--to lower government deficits, is to grow your way out and elevate Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, many of the Southern Europe economies are on the brink of recession, which will make lowering the deficit through economic growth impossible.

So what does all of this mean for home loan rates here in the United States?

The problems in Europe should continue to support the US Dollar and US Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, on which home loan rates are based) to some degree, as investors will view our Bonds as a safe haven for their money. Yet, if we continue to see better-than-expected economic data here like we did last week, this will offset the continued uncertainty surrounding the European crisis. And this is part of the reason that the Bond markets and home loan rates saw limited gains last week.

Some of the good news last week included tamer than expected wholesale inflation in the form of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and improved New York Manufacturing. Also, as you can see from the chart, the year-over-year headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) was down from the previous reading, which is good news for people concerned about inflation. However, the closely watched Core CPI rose by 0.1%, and though this was inline with estimates, it did push the year-over-year rate to 2.1% from 2%...a touch above the Fed's comfort zone.

The bottom line is that home loan rates are still near historic lows, which means now remains a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

This Thursday, all capital markets will be closed in observance of Thanksgiving, and Friday will be a shortened session. But we'll still see a cornucopia of economic indicators reported in just three days:

• Existing Home Sales will be released on Monday. The report comes after last week's positive reports on Housing Starts and Building Permits, which signaled a glimmer of hope to the battered housing sector.
• The second read on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 3rd Quarter will be delivered on Tuesday. The initial reading showed a somewhat healthy 2.5% increase. Also, look for the Durable Goods Report on Wednesday, which gives us a read on big-ticket items and a sense of how the economy is doing.
• The Consumer Sentiment Index will be released on Wednesday just in time for traders to square up positions ahead of the long holiday weekend.
• Also released on Wednesday will be the Fed's favorite gauge on inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, as well as Personal Incomes and Spending.
• Finally, this week Initial Jobless Claims will be delivered on Wednesday rather than Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Claims have been below 400,000 for the previous three weeks, signaling that there may be a light at the end of the tunnel in the Labor markets.

In addition to those reports, the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes from November 2nd could have some surprises when released at 2 pm ET on Tuesday. Last week, the New York Fed leader William Dudley said that it would make sense for the Fed to begin purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities. The minutes could reveal if the members discussed the topic.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, the problems in Europe tempered the impact that strong economic news in the US had on Bonds and home loan rates. This dynamic will be something to watch closely in the weeks ahead.

Black Friday Do's and Don'ts
These tips will help you get the best deals as you do your holiday shopping -- even if you don't plan on braving the stores the day after Thanksgiving.

Black Friday - the day after Thanksgiving that traditionally signals the beginning of the holiday shopping season because stores offer deep discounts that draw large, deal-hungry crowds - is just a couple of days away. Are you ready?

If you're a Black Friday pro who lines up outside stores every year before the crack of dawn to nab bargains, you're probably already planning your strategy - and we can help.

If you savor your sleep and sanity, you're probably not even thinking about stepping in a store November 25. But keep in mind that you don't have to brave the crowds to take advantage of Black Friday sales.

These Black Friday do's and don'ts will help you score the best deals - whether you want to shop from home in your pajamas or venture out to the stores (perhaps in something other than PJs).

DON'T rely solely on leaked ads to plan your Black Friday strategy. Plenty of Web sites specialize in publishing Black Friday ads before they appear on retailers' Web sites or in newspapers. You can use these leaked ads as a starting point for planning your purchases, but realize that you're reading gossip, says Dan de Grandpre, CEO ofdealnews.com, one of our favorite deal sites. Inevitably, some of the information in leaked ads is wrong, he says. Most legitimate ads aren't published until the Sunday before Black Friday.

DO expect some Black Friday sales to start on Thursday. Many retailers will start offering discounts online on Thanksgiving day. And some, such as Amazon, will offer Black Friday deals several days before November 25 -- so hot items may sell out before the big shopping day after Thanksgiving.

DON'T assume the best deals are in the stores. It's a tradition for a lot of people to get up at the crack of dawn and camp out in front of stores to scoop up deals. But de Grandpre says a lot of doorbusters (those deeply discounted items retailers use to get consumers in the door early Friday) will be available online, too -- especially on big-ticket products. And if an Apple product is on your gift list, you'll probably find it for less online (at Amazon.com, MacMall.com or McConnection.com) than at an Apple store -- and you may escape sales tax on your purchase.

DO brave the crowds if you're trying to snag an extremely limited item . You have a better chance of getting the deal if you go to the store - and are first in line. Keep in mind, though, that items that are marked down dramatically are cheap items to begin with - not top-selling, name-brand products, de Grandpre says.

DON'T do all your holiday shopping on Black Friday. Consider the Friday after Thanksgiving as one of several days to find deals. The best deals on apparel usually appear on Cyber Monday (November 28 this year), when retailers discount items online. Toys will be cheaper the first two weeks of December when Walmart and Amazon go to war with each other to offer the lowest prices and clear out inventory before Christmas, de Grandpre says. And the best deals on name-brand TVs and luxury items can be found in early December, too.

DO check return policies. Some retailers tighten their policies around the holidays. Some charge restocking fees if you bring an item back. And some won't let you exchange items that were manufactured specifically for Black Friday (to be sold at a low price). So be sure to ask each store what its policy is, and hang on to your receipts.

DON'T spring for extended warranties on big-ticket items. There's a good chance that a salesperson will try to talk you into paying extra for an extended warranty if you purchase a big-ticket item on Black Friday. That's because revenue from extended warranties helps make up for lost profits on discounted items. Typically, you'll pay 10% to 20% more for an item to extend a one-year manufacturer's warranty through the fifth year of ownership. But most major appliances do not break down within the extended-warranty period. Plus, you might already be covered if you use your credit card to purchase an item (see What You Need to Know About Warranties).

AND FINALLY … DON'T wait until the week before Christmas to shop. Retailers often raise prices because supplies are limited and they know that last-minute shoppers will pay more to purchase all the items on their gift lists.

Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2011 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. www.kiplinger.com.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 21 - November 25

Last Week in Review: Good news at home and abroad impacted the markets and home loan rates last week. Find out how.

Forecast for the Week: Earnings season is in full swing, plus look for big news on manufacturing, housing, and inflation.

View: Wondering about the outlook for the housing and mortgage markets in 2012? Be sure to read the article below.

“It’s a small world after all.” And that proved especially true last week, as our markets were impacted by news at home and news from overseas. Here are the highlights.

First, there was some good news on the economic front in the U.S. as Retail Sales for September rose by 1.1%, above the 0.6% expected and the highest increase in seven months. Remember good economic news typically benefits Stocks at the expense of Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied), as investors move their money from the safety of Bonds into Stocks to try and take advantage of gains.

And good news here wasn’t the only thing that pressured Bonds and home loan rates last week. The European Central Bank (ECB) said they will announce a plan by early November for addressing the Greek debt crisis and make recapitalizing their banks a priority. As part of this plan, the International Monetary Fund is going to dedicate more resources to help the European debt crisis. A lot of money is needed to make investors feel confident that the debt crisis will be contained, so investors saw this as positive news.

So what does this mean for Bonds and home loan rates? Should the overall present optimistic tone continue, Bonds and home loan rates could face additional pressure. However, if there is pessimistic or uncertain news, investors may return to the safe haven of Bonds, meaning home loan rates could benefit. We did see a little of this trend last week when there was word that China's exports came in lower than expectations, which brought concern that global growth could continue to slow.

Either way, the volatility is sure to continue so the most important thing to remember is that now is still a great time to purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Manufacturing, inflation, and housing reports dominate the news this week:

• The manufacturing sector accounts for one-quarter of the economy, so it’s especially important during the current economic situation. This week, the New York State Empire Manufacturing Index as well asIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization will be released on Monday. Later in the week, thePhiladelphia Fed Index will be reported on Thursday.
• Inflation news from the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be delivered on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. The last report on consumer inflation was a bit hotter than expected, so Bond market players will be closely watching those reports.
• Housing Starts will be reported on Wednesday and on Thursday Existing Home Sales will be delivered.
• The weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be released on Thursday. As of last week’s report, they continue to remain above the 400,000 level.

Plus, earnings season is in full swing this week. Some big names reporting earnings are Citigroup, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, Apple, and AT&T. If the reports come in better than expected, it could push investing dollars over to the Equity markets.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates faced pressure last week but remained above a key technical level. I’ll be watching the markets closely this week to see what happens.

The Housing and Mortgage Markets in 2012

Last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its outlook for the housing and mortgage markets in 2012. Overall, the news is mixed, but there’s some good news to glean out of it. Here are three positive elements in the MBA forecast that you should know about:

1. Home Sales Steady Before Slight Increase

The MBA expects total existing home sales will stay around the 4.9 million unit pace for 2011 and 2012. But in 2013, the MBA expects home sales to increase slightly to 5.2 million units, as the broader economy recovers.

New home sales are expected to be similar to the overall trend. As the MBA stated in its release: “The recovery in the new home sales will have a comparably slow start…but will show some meaningful increases in 2013.”

2. Slight Growth in Home Purchases

Despite an expected decrease in refinances, the MBA forecasts some slight growth in the number of mortgages for home purchases. Specifically, the MBA anticipates home loans for purchases to increase to $412 Billion in 2012, which would be up from the anticipated 2011 total of $400 Billion.

Better still, the MBA expects home loans for purchases to jump significantly to $700 Billion in 2013 as the economy, home sales, and home prices are all anticipated to pick up.

3. Rates to Remain Low

Overall, fixed home loan rates are expected to remain low by historical standards. The MBA expects rates to end 2011 around a 4.5 percent average, and then possibly dropping slightly to 4.4 percent at some point in 2012. But by 2013, the MBA expects rates to climb back up to 4.9 percent – which is still low by historical standards but does indicate a change in direction.

As always, forecasts can change based on numerous factors not just in the U.S., but also in the global markets. And while the MBA forecast does contain some negative aspects for the markets, it does hold some slightly positive aspects as well.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 17 - October 21

Last Week in Review: The Fed met, and inserted a “twist” into things.

Forecast for the Week: A full week of economic reports is ahead, including news on inflation, the state of the economy, consumer confidence, and more.

View: No one wants to get a bad rap, especially online. Check out Part 2 of our series on improving your online persona.

"Twist and shout." The Fed inserted a “twist” into the market last week, but only time will tell if their decision will be cause for shouting. Read on to learn what the Fed did, and what this could mean for home loan rates.

The week began with speculation that the Fed would announce “Operation Twist” after its two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. What is Operation Twist? Essentially, Operation Twist is where the Fed sells its holdings of short-term securities and Notes and then purchases longer-term Notes and Bonds in order to try and lower longer term rates even further.

And Operation Twist is exactly what the Fed announced, but their announcement came with some key surprises:

• First, the Fed’s statement was more strongly worded than expected, as the Fed said that there remains “significant” risks to the downside for the US economy.
• Second, the funding for Operation Twist was larger than expected, coming in at $400 Billion.
• Third, the Fed said they will reinvest principal payments on their current holdings of agency debt back into Mortgage Backed Securities…which led to a huge rally in the Bond Market Wednesday, while Stocks took a nose dive.

So what does all of this mean for home loan rates? The Fed’s statement has heightened pessimism, fear, and concern...and normally those sentiments help Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied) improve as investors seek a safe haven for their money. But it’s important to understand that even if Bonds improve, home loan rates may not improve much further.

Why? It is basic supply and demand: lenders’ pipelines have been overflowing with people wanting to refinance or purchase a home and take advantage of the historically low rates we’ve seen. This level of volume flowing into the system has already created a backlog of work for lenders, which means they may not pass along all the gains we are seeing in the Bond Market onto their rate sheets.

The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near historic lows, and now is a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Economic data will impact trading throughout the week by giving investors a broad look at the economy:

• Housing will be first up with New Home Sales on Monday. Last week's housing data was mixed with lower than expected Housing Starts but Existing Home Sales came in on the positive side. Pending Sales will also be reported on Thursday.
• The week will also give us a read on how consumers are feeling in this weakening economy. Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday and Consumer Sentiment will be delivered on Friday.
• Weekly Initial Jobless claims will also be closely watched on Thursday. The job markets continue to be a drag on the economy as each week over 400,000 people are claiming unemployment benefits.
• The big news this week will be the government's report on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which will be released Thursday. With the economy slowing, GDP will be on the radar screen for signs of recessionary numbers. Also important will be Wednesday’s Durable Goods Orders, which gives us an update on consumer and business buying behavior on big-ticket items.
• Investors will also be closely watching the inflation figures within the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, which is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation and will be reported on Friday.

In addition to those reports, investors will be closely watching the movements in the Stock Market after last week's plunge. The big questions will be: How low can Stocks go? And, are we in a bear market or just a correction phase?

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds rallied last week, though they did give back some of their gains on Friday. I’ll be watching both Stocks and Bonds closely this week to see which way the markets move.

Have you ever wondered what the Perfect Purchase Transaction would look like? Close your eyes and dream about it for a minute: Few inbound phone calls. Your cell phone never rings. Clients leave so ecstatic with your service that they hand you three names of people they know who are ready to sell their homes or want to buy in your area. You enjoy shorter workdays during the process because everything clicks. Okay, WAKE UP! The dream has ended.

Yet, that dream is possible. Although you work in an innately reactive business, it is possible to be proactive and stave off the reactive nature of day-to-day dealings. But, you must create a system. Think through each step of the process and ask yourself, "How can I make this better?" or "How can I take this reactive activity and be proactive to curtail it?" Here's the key: Create the Perfect Purchase Transaction.

The drill: Sit down with all of your team members, those individuals on your immediate staff as well as your extended team - your lender, escrow officer, title representative, home inspector, handy man, home warranty representative, etc. Then on blank index cards note the steps that take place pertaining to any purchase. The first card would document the initial phone call or touch point The last card could describe the note you send on the one-year anniversary since the transaction closed, congratulating your buyers on that memorable date. Each of the middle cards should highlight and detail every contact required throughout the process to ensure the Perfect Purchase Transaction.

In the lower, right-hand corner of each index card, jot down the initials of the individual tasked with executing the particular activity. It would be helpful to conduct this meeting in a conference room with a table long enough to spread out the index cards for easy viewing. Create a snake of index cards, beginning with the first point of contact. As you sift through this snake and examine each index card, determine where any snags or breakdowns occur. Contemplate any ways to improve each interaction.

From there, separate the index cards into stacks, sorted by initials. Are any of the stacks top heavy? Do any of the stacks contain more activities than it's humanly possible to service at the level of professionalism needed to "WOW" a customer? Do any cards in these stacks need to be redistributed? Can any cards be discarded?

This will help you visualize every point of contact and critical element of your Perfect Purchase Transaction process.

I'd love an opportunity to discuss the systems I use to consistently WOW my clients!

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